“Here’s how it works: companies pay an annual fee for the Web-based software and employees start out with a certain amount of virtual money. When people inside the company pose a question — such as when a new game will be ready to ship or whether a competitor’s new drug will get regulatory approval — employees offer a response and choose an amount to bet on its accuracy. In comments, they can anonymously explain their reasoning. Then, if they are right, they get more money and a louder voice in the future; if they are wrong, they lose money and do not have as much to bet later on. [...] During a pilot period, five large companies, including Warner Brothers and General Motors, have been using Crowdcast to predict revenue, ship dates or new products from competitors. About 4,000 bets have been placed, and predictions have been about 50 percent more accurate than official forecasts, Ms. Fine said.” - × × ×

Yay to prediction markets! - alex@kapranoff.ru